Is immigration a winning strategy for Republicans in the 2024 election:?
The Big Picture
Immigration has remained a dominant issue in American politics since Donald Trump’s unexpected 2016 victory, where his rallying cry to “Build the Wall” energized Republican voters. Now, in 2024, immigration remains a top concern, ranking as the second-most important issue for American voters, just behind Jobs and the Economy.
But how much should Republicans lean into immigration as a campaign issue? While it is the top concern for GOP voters, the nuances in voter demographics, independent voter priorities, and policy preferences suggest a more complex strategy is needed.
Zooming In
Immigration is the #1 Issue for Republican Voters
We asked American voters: “What is the most pressing issue in America today?”
- 21% of all voters ranked immigration as their most important issue.
- 33% of Republican voters said immigration was their top concern, making it the #1 issue for the party.
However, focusing entirely on immigration may not be the best strategy for winning elections. Our data suggests age plays a significant role in shaping Republican voters' priorities.
The Age Divide: Older Republicans Care More About Immigration
- 45% of Republican voters over 50 ranked immigration as their top issue.
- Only 19.2% of Republicans under 50 said the same, instead prioritizing economic concerns.
This generational divide creates a challenge for the GOP:
- Older voters (50+) turn out at much higher rates (71.4%) than younger voters (43.4%).
- If younger Republicans want the party to prioritize other issues, they must increase their voter turnout to counterbalance the influence of older voters.
Race and Immigration: A GOP Myth Debunked
It’s easy to assume that Republicans’ overwhelmingly white voter base explains their focus on immigration, but the data challenges this narrative.
- 81% of Republican voters in our survey self-identified as white.
- However, Hispanic voters are nearly evenly distributed across all political affiliations.
- 23% of white voters and 20% of Hispanic voters ranked immigration as their top issue—a nearly identical concern.
The real racial divide on immigration exists between white and Black voters.
- Black voters are significantly less likely to prioritize immigration than white or Hispanic voters.
- Immigration ranks third, not second, for Black Americans, with economic issues and government leadership taking precedence.
What Do Independent Voters Think?
Winning elections isn’t just about energizing your base—it’s about persuading independent voters.
- 19% of independents rank immigration as their most pressing issue (second only to the economy).
- However, another survey from late 2023 showed only 13% of independents ranked immigration first, behind concerns about government leadership.
This suggests independents are less radical than Republicans on immigration.
Moderating the Message: Immigration Policy Preferences
Republicans must strike a balance between appealing to their base and attracting independent voters.
We asked voters: “Borders are used to control immigration. Which of the following do you agree with?”
Republicans:
- 51% want strict limits on immigration.
- 41% prefer a mixed approach, allowing legal immigration for necessary workers.
- 8% believe nationality shouldn’t determine rights, the most open-border stance.
Independents:
- 55% prefer the mixed approach (allowing legal immigration while regulating entry).
- 29% support strong immigration restrictions.
The key takeaway for the GOP:
- Base voters want a strong stance on immigration.
- Swing voters prefer a more moderate approach.
- A successful campaign must tailor its message depending on the audience.
Independent Lens
Will immigration be the defining issue of the 2024 election for Republicans? The data suggests it will be a major factor—but not the only one.
Key Insights:
- Immigration is the #1 issue for Republicans, but only among older voters (50+).
- Younger Republicans prioritize the economy over immigration.
- Independent voters prefer a moderate immigration policy, not strict restrictions.
- Black voters are significantly less likely to rank immigration as their top concern.
What does this mean for the Republican strategy?
- To win their base, Republicans must continue prioritizing immigration.
- To win swing voters, they should moderate their stance and focus on economic concerns alongside immigration.
- If younger Republicans want to change the party's priorities, they must vote in larger numbers.
With immigration remaining a hot-button issue, how Republicans frame their policies will determine whether they energize their base or alienate key swing voters.
To stay ahead of independent voter trends, join the Independent Center and access our full survey data HERE.
