Swing states will once again play a decisive role in the 2024 election. These politically competitive states—where both major parties have a viable path to victory—are crucial battlegrounds that will determine the outcome of the presidential race.
Among the most closely watched swing states are Pennsylvania and Arizona, where voters are signaling their priorities through policy preferences and leadership qualities rather than strict party loyalty.
Polling from the Independent Center provides critical insights into what these voters truly care about. Their top concerns? Jobs and the economy, immigration, and government spending. And when it comes to candidates, they want someone who is level-headed and willing to work across the aisle—not someone who prioritizes party loyalty.
We asked voters in Arizona and Pennsylvania, “Which of the following do you think will have the biggest impact on your vote?”
This data reinforces broader national trends, where economic stability remains the most pressing concern for voters.
Arizona voters are more likely to prioritize immigration than their counterparts in Pennsylvania. This likely stems from the state’s demographic composition—20% of polled Arizona voters identify as Hispanic or Latino, compared to just 5% in Pennsylvania.
Arizona also has a higher percentage of foreign-born residents (12.6%) compared to Pennsylvania (7.2%) (World Population Review).
Despite immigration being a top concern, voters in both states prefer a moderate approach to border control—favoring policies that allow for regulated legal immigration rather than extreme restrictions or open borders.
As seen in previous Independent Center polling, swing state voters are deeply dissatisfied with both major political parties.
With such widespread frustration, it’s no surprise that voters in these states want leaders who can rise above party divisions.
We asked swing state voters what qualities they want in a presidential candidate. The top response? A leader who works across the aisle.
This suggests that candidates focusing on partisan attacks or “owning” the opposition are unlikely to win over swing state voters.
Swing state voters in Pennsylvania and Arizona are frustrated with the status quo. They want leaders who will prioritize economic stability, manage immigration effectively, and work pragmatically across party lines.
This presents a key opportunity for candidates willing to break from extreme partisanship. Instead of playing to the base, a winning strategy in 2024 will be appealing to moderate, independent-minded voters who value competence over political theater.
To stay informed on voter sentiment and emerging election trends, join the Independent Center and access our full research and analysis.
