Independent voters helped propel the GOP to the White House and Congress in the 2024 election after frustrations with Democrats over a faltering economy. But remember: these voters are pragmatic. If they aren’t happy with how things are going, they’ll flip to the other side of the political aisle in 2026 and 2028.
The Big Picture
After a whirlwind start to the second Trump presidency, the American electorate can now get a general sense of the priorities and trajectory of the new administration. The first 100 days often serve as an important benchmark for measuring the early successes—or failures—of a presidency.
For this administration, it’s difficult to decide where to begin. Trump’s second term commenced with a flurry of executive orders that addressed a wide range of topics: from renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, to a federal ban on plastic straws, to implementing massive tariffs on trading partners.
With the 2026 midterms approaching, this administration must continue working to ensure that its campaign promises are fulfilled.
Zooming In
Donald Trump’s first presidency was marked by a rock solid economy that many Americans appreciated. In contrast, his first 100 days this time have been characterized by economic volatility due to uncertainties surrounding the direction of US trade policy.
Meanwhile, several of Trump’s executive orders are facing legal challenges. Examples of those that are currently blocked or still in progress include the executive orders to end birthright citizenship, terminate federal support for gender-affirming care, freeze foreign aid, and overturn the offshore drilling ban.
Trump has claimed that he would comply with federal courts. He reiterated this recently, saying, “I never defy the Supreme Court. I wouldn't do that. I'm a big believer in the Supreme Court, and have a lot of respect for the justices.” However, many are worried that a constitutional crisis is brewing, as a federal judge has ordered the administration to actively seek the return of a wrongly deported man to a prison in El Salvador.
Key Facts
- Approval rating: 39%
- Lawsuits: 200+
- Inflation Rate: 2.4%, a 6-month low
- Gasoline prices have remained relatively steady since Trump’s inauguration
- Oil prices have dropped as the US has increased its production significantly
- Since Trump took office, the stock market is down approx. 9% as the US economy likely had its worst quarter since Covid-19
Independent Lens
Independent voters helped propel the GOP to the White House and Congress in the 2024 election after frustrations with Democrats over a faltering economy. But remember: these voters are pragmatic. If they aren’t happy with how things are going, they’ll flip to the other side of the political aisle in 2026 and 2028.
The tariffs have been particularly problematic, as they’re likely to raise the prices of everyday goods. While there is currently a 90-day tariff pause as the administration reassesses its strategy, this haphazardness is damaging to small and medium-sized businesses that don’t have the cash on hand to ride out a pending global recession.
Independent voters supported Trump for a change in the status quo. And Trump has undoubtedly brought about change. By cutting government programs like USAID and laying off federal workers, this administration is determined to shake things up.
However, it remains unclear whether these changes will enhance the personal lives of everyday Americans or if they are merely performative.
