Two national surveys conducted months apart offer a consistent picture of how Americans view independent candidates — and a notable shift in one subgroup between the two waves.
The headline finding
In the first survey, nearly 70% of Americans said they would be likely to support a well-funded, independent candidate who shared their views and was willing to work across the aisle. Only about 6% said they actually planned to vote for an independent candidate in their own district — a gap between stated openness and expected behavior that has remained a consistent feature of the data.
In the second wave, that overall pattern held steady: 70.8% of respondents expressed openness to a strong independent candidate (statistically unchanged from 69.5%), and the share planning to vote independent on the generic ballot remained at 6.3%, identical to the first wave.
What changed: Republican openness moved significantly
While most top-line numbers were stable between waves, one subgroup shifted measurably. Openness to a strong independent candidate among Republican respondents rose from 62.7% to 70.3%, a 7.6-point increase — the largest movement recorded anywhere in the poll. This shift met standard thresholds for statistical significance (p ≈ 0.04) and appeared consistently across both "very likely" and "somewhat likely" response categories.
In the first wave, Republican respondents showed comparatively less openness to an independent alternative than Democratic or independent-identifying respondents. In the second wave, that gap narrowed considerably: Independents (76%), Democrats (72%), and Republicans (70%) were separated by only six percentage points — a much more even distribution across party lines than in the earlier survey.
Why the gap between openness and voting intent persists
The survey data points to two consistent factors behind the difference between stated openness (70%) and expected voting behavior (6%):
- Limited candidate awareness. Roughly four in ten respondents could not name a specific independent candidate on their 2026 ballot. About 23% described themselves as "interested, but haven't heard anything" — a group that itself showed high openness to independents (81%, up from 76% in the first wave).
- Perceptions around vote-splitting. About one-third of respondents continued to describe independent candidates as likely "spoilers" or protest votes, a view that was largely unchanged between the two waves.
Neither of these dynamics shifted meaningfully between survey waves, which researchers note is consistent with the stability seen in the overall 6% voting-intent figure.
Broader political context during the survey period
Between the two waves, several other indicators moved modestly: self-reported party identification shifted slightly toward Republicans, and presidential approval ratings declined to approximately 39% approve / 57% disapprove. The generic congressional ballot showed Democrats at 42% and Republicans at 37%, with independent-candidate support unchanged at 6.3%.
Summary
Across two survey waves, the data shows a large and durable pool of Americans open to independent candidates, alongside a persistently small share who currently plan to vote that way. The most notable development between waves was a significant increase in openness among Republican respondents, which brought the three partisan groups closer together than in the earlier survey. Awareness of specific candidates and perceptions of vote-splitting remain largely unchanged and continue to be cited as the primary factors separating stated openness from expected voting behavior.
Methodology: Based on two national surveys of 1,000 U.S. adults each (Wave 2: 90.6% registered voters). Estimated margin of error ±3.1 percentage points; subgroup and wave-over-wave differences carry larger margins of error. Figures reflect the data as supplied.
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