Answering this week's questions from independent voters.
Why is the government still shut down?
The current government shutdown is already the second-longest shutdown since the adoption of the modern budget process. The only one longer was the 35-day shutdown in Trump's first administration over funding for a border wall. This shutdown seems likely to extend past the 35-day mark, given that the House has been in recess since the shutdown began.
The stated reason this is still going on is that the Democrats want to extend the enhanced premium tax credits under the Affordable Care Act. These were introduced in 2021 to ensure that people had health coverage during the COVID-19 pandemic. Congress renewed the tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act, and they will expire at the end of 2025. The Senate Democrats would like to include an extension of this tax credit in the continuing resolution, since open enrollment starts soon and stories of sky-high premiums for next year's ACA marketplace plans are circulating in the media. Senate Republicans argue that this extension should be included in a separate legislative package outside the CR, since the tax credit is not essential to keeping the government open.
Senate Republicans also make a healthcare argument that the Democrats' failure to pass the CR is holding up a $50 billion investment in rural healthcare. This is funding Congress passed as part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Majority Leader Thune is pushing a bill that would specifically pay essential federal workers and active-duty military.
Meanwhile, House Republican leadership claims that they did their job and passed a "clean" CR. Consequently, Speaker Johnson doesn't see a reason to come back to DC until the Senate passes the CR.
Since neither side has left much wiggle room for negotiations, there isn't a clear off-ramp from this stalemate. In the meantime, the White House Office of Management and Budget is selectively canceling infrastructure funding in states and congressional districts that didn't vote for President Trump.
In short, the government is still shut down thanks to a battle of egos in the two-party duopoly, and no one seems to actually want to govern, as they were elected to do.
Where do things stand on the debt?
Well, we hit a milestone this month, and in the middle of a government shutdown. The gross national debt hit $38 trillion, according to the Treasury Department. Frankly, that's more money than most of us, if any, can truly comprehend. I mean, first $1 billion in $100 notes weighs 11 tons. $1 trillion in $100 notes would be 11,000 tons. For the whole debt, we're at 418,000 tons. Comparing that to something we can visualize, let's look at Air Force One. Its maximum takeoff weight is 833,000 pounds (416.5 tons). That means the gross national debt in $100 bills weighs more than 1003 fully loaded presidential planes. If we put all those $100 bills onto pallets, we could fit $100 million on each pallet—380,000 pallets—and we'd have the gross national debt. You would need 120,115 40-foot shipping containers to accommodate all that cash. And then you would need 102 MSC IRINA ships to carry all those containers, or 120,115 18-wheelers if you wanted to put them on the road.
Economists would tell you that a more illustrative figure on how bad the debt is would be the "debt held by the public" figure. This is because various federal government agencies and departments hold some of the national debt. In the same update from Treasury, we learn that the debt held by the public (fascinatingly, it's calculated to the penny) is $30,437,767,080,384.89, or 62 Elon Musk net worths give or take a couple, depending on the stock market close for the day.
As we have talked about before, the main drivers of our spending are Social Security, Medicare/Medicaid, and interest on the debt. That takes up roughly ¾ of the federal budget. The remaining ¼ is what everyone fights about. Frankly, there's not enough waste, fraud, and abuse in the discretionary budget to cut that can offset the fundamental drivers of our deficit spending. We are going to need fundamental reforms in how Congress conducts budgeting and appropriations, and in how we manage the growth of healthcare and Social Security spending.
Most importantly, today we need a Congress that will do the hard work to solve these existential problems. Not a Congress that shuts down the government over petty squabbles that make up a rounding error in the gross national debt. Congress was elected to make hard choices to move the country forward. By solving these problems, congressional members not only help their constituents but also live up to the obligation outlined in the Preamble of the Constitution: "to form a more perfect union." It's hard to argue that runaway debt promotes domestic tranquility or the general welfare of the people. On the contrary, as former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen told Congress more than a decade ago: "The most significant threat to our national security is our debt."
What's the Dignity Act that just popped up in the news?
The Dignity Act is a bill introduced in the 118th Congress that failed to launch. It had a makeover and was reintroduced this summer in the 119th Congress. At more than 250 pages, it attempts to make serious reform in certain areas. The Dignity Act aims to reform the U.S. immigration system, focusing on the southern border. It includes border security enhancements, visa reforms, and pathways to legal status for Dreamers and Temporary Protected Status recipients. The Act also establishes the Dignity Program, offering a path to residency for undocumented immigrants who pay restitution and taxes.
Lead co-sponsor Rep Maria Salazar (R-FL) spoke out on Oct 22 about her confidence that President Trump will ultimately endorse the bill as a common-sense way to help maintain America's economic edge. She was joined in that enthusiasm by Tom Souzi (D-NY).
If Salazar is correct that President Trump could come around and support the bill, which hasn't received much fanfare since its reintroduction, this could be one of the more impactful pieces of immigration legislation since the "Gang of Eight" during the second Obama administration. The Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act of 2013 ultimately went nowhere, but it was an honest attempt at bipartisan, comprehensive reform. While it originated in the Senate and had only 8 sponsors, the Dignity Act is now in the House and has 27 sponsors. Compared with the Gang of Eight's efforts in the Senate, the Dignity Act has a smaller percentage of members of the House.
