Social Security and Medicare Represent More Than $75 Trillion In Unfunded Obligations

Modernizing entitlements is more urgent than ever.

The Big Picture

The Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Trust Fund is expected to be depleted by 2033, while the Medicare Hospital Insurance Trust Fund is projected to run out in 2036. These looming fiscal crises underscore the urgent need to modernize these programs.

Zooming In

The defense spending distraction

While some lawmakers resist cutting defense, others advocate for reforming military expenditures. However, focusing solely on defense spending misses the larger issue:

• In FY 2024, defense spending accounted for 12.8% of all federal spending, projected to decline to 10.4% by FY 2034.
• Eliminating all administrative waste in the Pentagon—estimated at $125 billion over five years—would barely dent the national deficit.

What’s really driving the deficit?

The key contributors to the growing deficit are Medicare, Social Security, and interest payments on the federal debt—all of which exceed defense spending:

• Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) will be depleted by 2033, triggering an automatic 21% cut in benefits.
• Medicare’s Hospital Insurance Trust Fund is projected to cover only 89% of scheduled benefits by 2036.

Independent Lens

The Fiscal Commission Act (H.R. 5779) offered one potential starting point for reform, but opposition has stalled progress.

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