Election Day is November 3, just over five weeks away. Most of the coverage will focus on which party controls Congress, but another question sits underneath it: who gets to help decide the choices on the ballot in the first place?
That question is the reason open primaries matter, and this fall's ballots and races will show a lot about where it's heading.
A Gallup analysis found that a record 45 percent of U.S. voters now identify as independents, up from 34 percent in 2006. Primary rules haven't kept pace. According to the Movement Advancement Project, 16 states have semi-open primaries, where only independents can choose which party primary to vote in, and 12 states plus D.C. run fully closed primaries. In much of the country, the election that effectively decides the winner in many districts is one that millions of taxpaying voters can't fully take part in. The Nation / Movement Advancement Project
Open primaries are one answer to this mismatch. Voters aren't asked to register with a party to have a say, and candidates have to answer to a broader slice of the electorate.
The most consequential open primary question on any ballot this November is in Alaska. Ballot Measure 2 would get rid of open primary elections, where all candidates appear on one ballot, and end ranked-choice general elections, bringing back party primaries and single-choice general elections. Wikipedia
It's also broader than the headlines suggest. Local reporting notes that the measure would also open the door for parties to keep independents off the ballot and remove certain campaign finance disclosure provisions. Alaska's News Source
The history explains why it's worth watching. Alaska voters approved the current system in 2020. In 2024, a similar repeal measure was rejected with 49.9 percent voting yes and 50.1 percent voting no. This year's effort is the third time in four election cycles that Alaska's election system has been on the ballot. Whichever way it goes, the result will be read nationally as a signal about how voters feel about opening up the process. Ballotpedia / The Alaska Current
Alaska is a test of whether reforms survive. New Mexico is a test of whether they work. As we've written, the state implemented a semi-open primary for the first time this cycle, and participation among unaffiliated voters, who make up roughly 23 percent of the state's electorate, rose significantly. The same piece noted a gap: the state didn't adequately educate voters about their new rights. Independent Center
Reform on paper only matters if voters know about it. Washington, D.C. offers a related warning: reporting from Independent Voter News says the city council has declined to fully fund and implement Initiative 83, the semi-open primary and ranked-choice measure approved by 73 percent of voters in 2024. Passing a reform is one milestone, and implementing it is another. Independent Voter News
Independent candidates are showing up on statewide ballots in unusual numbers. One recent analysis notes that an unprecedented number of candidates in this year's midterms are running outside the two-party system. Races in states like Nebraska, Montana, and South Dakota are drawing national attention. As a nonpartisan organization, we don't endorse candidates. We do think it's worth noticing that voters are being offered options beyond the party labels they're used to. The Nation
Check how your state's primary system works, confirm your registration, and make a plan to vote. Election Day is the end of a long process, but the rules that shape the next one are being written right now.
