Open Primaries on the Ballot: What to Watch Before Election Day

Alaska's Ballot Measure 2, New Mexico's first semi-open primary, and a record number of independents: what to watch on open primaries before November 3.

Election Day is November 3, just over five weeks away. Most of the coverage will focus on which party controls Congress, but another question sits underneath it: who gets to help decide the choices on the ballot in the first place?

That question is the reason open primaries matter, and this fall's ballots and races will show a lot about where it's heading.

Independent voters are the story, and the rules haven't caught up

A Gallup analysis found that a record 45 percent of U.S. voters now identify as independents, up from 34 percent in 2006. Primary rules haven't kept pace. According to the Movement Advancement Project, 16 states have semi-open primaries, where only independents can choose which party primary to vote in, and 12 states plus D.C. run fully closed primaries. In much of the country, the election that effectively decides the winner in many districts is one that millions of taxpaying voters can't fully take part in. The Nation / Movement Advancement Project

Open primaries are one answer to this mismatch. Voters aren't asked to register with a party to have a say, and candidates have to answer to a broader slice of the electorate.

The big one: Alaska's Ballot Measure 2

The most consequential open primary question on any ballot this November is in Alaska. Ballot Measure 2 would get rid of open primary elections, where all candidates appear on one ballot, and end ranked-choice general elections, bringing back party primaries and single-choice general elections. Wikipedia

It's also broader than the headlines suggest. Local reporting notes that the measure would also open the door for parties to keep independents off the ballot and remove certain campaign finance disclosure provisions. Alaska's News Source

The history explains why it's worth watching. Alaska voters approved the current system in 2020. In 2024, a similar repeal measure was rejected with 49.9 percent voting yes and 50.1 percent voting no. This year's effort is the third time in four election cycles that Alaska's election system has been on the ballot. Whichever way it goes, the result will be read nationally as a signal about how voters feel about opening up the process. Ballotpedia / The Alaska Current

What New Mexico taught us

Alaska is a test of whether reforms survive. New Mexico is a test of whether they work. As we've written, the state implemented a semi-open primary for the first time this cycle, and participation among unaffiliated voters, who make up roughly 23 percent of the state's electorate, rose significantly. The same piece noted a gap: the state didn't adequately educate voters about their new rights. Independent Center

Reform on paper only matters if voters know about it. Washington, D.C. offers a related warning: reporting from Independent Voter News says the city council has declined to fully fund and implement Initiative 83, the semi-open primary and ranked-choice measure approved by 73 percent of voters in 2024. Passing a reform is one milestone, and implementing it is another. Independent Voter News

Independent candidates are on the ballot too

Independent candidates are showing up on statewide ballots in unusual numbers. One recent analysis notes that an unprecedented number of candidates in this year's midterms are running outside the two-party system. Races in states like Nebraska, Montana, and South Dakota are drawing national attention. As a nonpartisan organization, we don't endorse candidates. We do think it's worth noticing that voters are being offered options beyond the party labels they're used to. The Nation

What to watch as Election Day approaches

• The Alaska margin. The 2024 result came down to a fraction of a percentage point. Watch turnout, and whether the campaign stays focused on the primary system or on the other provisions bundled into the measure.
• Local ranked-choice measures. Voters in Irvine, California, Honolulu, and Longmont, Colorado will each decide whether to adopt ranked-choice voting for local elections. These are small contests, but they show whether the appetite for changing how we vote extends to the local level. Ballotpedia
• Independent vote share. Beyond who wins and loses, look at how independent candidates perform compared with historical baselines for candidates outside the two parties.
• How independents vote. The number of voters with no party affiliation keeps growing, and their choices this fall will be closely studied by campaigns and party leaders.
• What comes after. Most primary reform is decided in state legislatures and ballot campaigns in the year after an election. The conversations that start in November will shape 2027 and 2028.

What you can do now

Check how your state's primary system works, confirm your registration, and make a plan to vote. Election Day is the end of a long process, but the rules that shape the next one are being written right now.