Studying Independent Voters, Part 2: A Cohesive Third Force

Independent voters share core values that make them an influential voting bloc.

The Big Picture

To be considered a third force in American politics, independent voters need more than just large numbers—they must share a degree of cohesion and common values. Our analysis found that independents are as cohesive as partisans, if not more so, and they are reshaping political dynamics in the United States.

This analysis incorporated:

• Polling data on political leanings and issue preferences.
• Focus groups and video interviews with independent voters.
• Data science techniques, including machine learning models to analyze social media, traditional media, and search trends.
• A/B testing to refine messaging that resonates with independents.

Through this research, we confirmed that independents lean center-right on economic issues and left on social issues, aligning closely with a modern version of classical liberalism.

Zooming In

Understanding independent voters through data analysis

Our research modeled Democrats, Republicans, and independents, distinguishing leaning Democrats (31%), leaning Republicans (30%), and pure independents (39%). This allowed us to analyze variations in social and economic policy preferences.

We also compared younger independents (Millennials and Gen Z) with older independents to identify generational differences. This analysis was conducted both nationally and in key swing states like Arizona and Pennsylvania.

The key finding? Independent voters are the most cohesive of all groups, as shown by their low discrepancy scores in our modeling.

Independents are pragmatic and centrist

When analyzing how independents position themselves on the political spectrum, we found that:

• They lean center-right on economic issues, favoring fiscal responsibility, competition, and choice.
• They lean left on social issues, valuing tolerance, fairness, and personal freedom.
• They reject ideological extremes, showing a preference for pragmatic, solution-oriented governance.

This balance makes independents distinct from both major parties, reinforcing their role as a third force in politics.

How independents think about policy

Our analysis showed that independents take a holistic view of issues, seeing connections between policies rather than considering them in isolation.

For example:

• When discussing criminal justice reform, independents connected the issue to education policy, economic mobility, and social programs.
• On healthcare, they focused on choice, competition, and affordability, rather than a purely government-driven solution.
• On economic policy, they consistently prioritized affordability, inflation, and job opportunities.

This nuanced perspective suggests that independents vote based on issues, not party loyalty, which explains their frequent ticket-splitting behavior.

Data Snapshot

• Independents outvoted Democrats in 2024, making up 34% of the electorate.
• Independents are more cohesive than Republicans and Democrats in their political beliefs.
• Economic issues remain their top priority, with affordability, inflation, and taxes leading their concerns.
• They lean center-right on economic issues but favor social tolerance, forming a modern version of classical liberalism.

Independent Lens

Our research confirms that independent voters are not just a loose collection of undecided voters—they are a powerful and cohesive voting bloc with distinct political preferences.

Independents demand pragmatism over partisanship, favoring fiscally responsible governance and social tolerance. This presents a major challenge to both parties, as neither currently offers a full package that aligns with independent voters' priorities.

As Millennials and Gen Z continue to drive the growth of independent voters, the question remains: Will America’s political system adapt, or will independents reshape the system themselves?

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