Trump and Harris must engage the voters who will decide the presidency—independents.
The Big Picture
For a business to be successful, it must identify its customers. Some people will never be interested, others will always be loyal, but most are open to persuasion. Politics is the same way. Yet, in today’s hyperpartisan climate, both major candidates spend most of their time talking to the fringes and ignoring the majority of us.
Who are the majority of voters? Independents. While Republicans and Democrats each struggle to claim a quarter of the electorate, over half of Americans identify as independent. Yet, we are routinely ignored.
Ignoring us is a losing strategy. Donald Trump won independents by 4 percent in 2016, and Joe Biden won them by 13 percent in 2020. Capturing the majority in the middle is a prerequisite for winning this November, but neither Trump nor Harris is making an effort to engage us.
Zooming In
The First Debate is a Crucial Opportunity
The first presidential debate on September 10th in Philadelphia presents an opportunity for both candidates to look beyond their base. Unlike fundraisers or rallies, this national stage is their chance to define themselves to all voters—not just their most loyal supporters.
What Independent Voters Want
Independents share several key concerns:
- We are turned off by partisanship and negative attacks.
- By a two-thirds margin, we favor candidates who work across the aisle.
- We want competency and common-sense solutions.
- Over half of us want more choices in politics.
- We don’t care about personal scandals—we care about results.
Outgoing Independent Senator Joe Manchin (WV) summed it up: “I’m just trying to find a balance all the time. You run your life from the middle. Can’t we run our country from the middle?”
Extreme Policies and the Frustration of Independents
Instead of addressing these concerns, both candidates push divisive policies:
- Trump threatens mass deportations and high tariffs.
- Harris offers “free” money and price controls.
Even their running mates appeal to the fringes. The Wall Street Journal called Tim Walz “the most liberal choice.” Meanwhile, J.D. Vance wants to seize government agencies and seize the assets of non-profits he opposes.
The Issues That Actually Matter
Instead of grandstanding, independents want adult conversations about:
- Affordability and cost of living.
- Encouraging entrepreneurship.
- Modernizing entitlements like Social Security.
But these topics don’t grab headlines like partisan attacks do.
Data Snapshot
According to a recent Independent Center survey:
- Only 19% of voters feel their voices are being heard by elected officials.
- 53% believe both parties ignore them in favor of ideological extremes.
Independent Lens
The current political landscape is hostile to the majority of us in the middle. Neither party is working toward common-sense solutions or balance. The frustration of independents is growing, and the 2024 election could be decided by how well candidates respond to this reality.
If Trump or Harris decides to pivot and speak directly to independent voters, they may find that just over half of the electorate is willing to listen with an open mind.
Adam Brandon is a contributor to the Independent Center.
