n = 600 registered Idaho voters likely to vote in the November 2026 midterm. Results are weighted by age, voter registration, educational level, gender, race/ethnicity and county; design-adjusted margin of error ±4.0 points at 95% confidence. Mixed mode (SMS-to-web, web panel). Totals may not sum to 100 due to rounding; “<1” denotes a non-zero value under 0.5%.
Bottom line
Idaho voters want Washington to work differently, and a large majority see independents as the way to get there. 86% say federally elected officials “can do better”; 59% rate American democracy as unhealthy; 54% disapprove of Congress. Offered two views of independents, 68% say electing a few “could provide a necessary, stabilizing voice, acting as the adult in the room,” against 20% who say the two-party system is not broken. That pro-independent view wins every group in the state: 87% of Democrats, 77% of independents, 60% of Republicans; 84% of moderates and 57% of conservatives; 84% of registered unaffiliated voters; and 55% of voters who approve of President Trump.
Voters prefer a representative who answers to them rather than to a party caucus. 60% would rather have a House member who “does not caucus with either major political party” and judges every bill on what is best for the state, versus 26% who want one who caucuses with a party for institutional power. Republicans split 51–32 for the non-caucusing candidate; registered unaffiliated voters 78–8; moderates 80–15. “A politician willing to work with both sides of the aisle” is the most popular figure tested: 79% favorable, 13% unfavorable, with little partisan gap (Democrats 93%, independents 77%, Republicans 76%).
Todd Achilles has the best net favorability among people and groups surveyed. 45% of voters view him favorably to only 18% unfavorably—net +27, ahead of Jim Risch (+26), the Republican party (+23), Donald Trump (+17) and far ahead of the Democratic party (−28). Among the 63% who have formed an opinion, he is favorable by 72–28. The 37% who have no opinion yet are concentrated in the groups that have barely heard of him: Republicans (45% no opinion), conservatives (46%), voters 55+ (43%), women (46%) and rural voters (56%).
Achilles has better net favorability among independent and moderate voters. Among independents he is viewed favorably by 42% vs. 18% unfavorable, while Risch is at 33 favorable / 46 unfavorable. Among moderates: Achilles 56–14, Risch 38–53. In Ada County, Achilles leads Risch on favorability 53 to 45. And Achilles is viewed more favorably than the Democratic party by every group in the state—including Republicans (34% favorable toward Achilles vs. 16% toward the Democratic party), conservatives (32 vs. 16) and Trump voters (34 vs. 18).
The appetite for independents
- A majority of all groups surveyed accept the case for independents as stabilizers. A majority of Republicans (60%), conservatives (57%) and Trump approvers (55%) accept the case for a few independents as stabilizers, and about half of each prefer a non-caucusing representative. Registered unaffiliated voters—26% of the electorate—are the most receptive group in the state after Democrats (84% and 78%).
- Moderates are the core of pro-independent sentiment: 84% see independents as stabilizing, 80% prefer a non-caucusing rep, 88% like a work-across-the-aisle politician, and 73% think democracy is unhealthy. They are a quarter of the electorate and lean sharply toward Achilles on favorability (above).
- Negative views of party brands translate to opportunities for independent candidates to make inroads: An independent candidate unencumbered by major party labels is uniquely positioned to bridge this divide—reaching both the over 6-in-10 voters alienated by Democrats and the more than one-third of the electorate holding a negative view of Republicans.
